Where Do The Parties Stand On Their Midterms Odds?


Politicos throughout the country are already looking ahead to November and the mid-term elections to try to get a sense of how they might shake out. They are definitely thinking about both political parties and how those parties might or might not be able to shake out some wins in both the House and Senate.

FiveThirtyEight.com has been a resource that those who obsess over these kind of things have frequently turned to for the information that they seek. They want to know what the exact odds are for a given outcome in the election, and they are able to find statistical breakdowns of such things when they go to FiveThirtyEight.

Right now, the group there believes that there is more than likely chance that Democrats retake the House of Representatives, and while the Senate is a much tougher road for them, there is even a chance that this happens as well. This is not due to some personal biases of the people at FiveThirtyEight that makes them come to this conclusion. Rather, they are basing this on the numbers that they have already seen out of various polls related to House and Senate races.

A recent special election in Pennsylvania in which the Democrat eked out a victory gives even more fuel to the fire under the idea that Democrats might be headed for a very big November indeed. This is because the Democrats were not supposed to be competitive in the district at all. It is a plus twenty point Trump district as far as the 2016 election results are concerned, so to have a Democrat win there was a real shocker. That is precisely what happened though.

The number-crunchers at FiveThirtyEight suggest that the result of that particular election points to an even bigger problem for the GOP in November. That is the problem of an electorate that is not that enthusiastic about voting for Republicans. They might not be crossing over to vote for Democrats in most cases, but they are just not coming out to vote in general. Meanwhile, the Democrats are getting their people in line to keep voting Democrats in.

Democrats are very excited about the possibility of a whole different look to Congress following the 2018 elections, but Republicans are surely going to battle back as well. They are not prepared to just throw in the towel and give up. It will be a battle from start to finish.

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