There is a lot of hype and buzz related to the chances that Democrats retake control of at least part of Congress in 2018. Some say that this seems likely to them as they review the numbers and try to make predictions based on math that they have seen out of the polling.
That is something worth taking a look at critically whenever possible. We want to make sure that people are not overhyping the chances that the Democrats will take over Congress if this does not turn out to be true. FiveThirtyEight.com, a great resource for all kinds of political statistics and predictions, has laid out their case for the Democrats’ chances in 2018.
The Senate map is something that is incredibly difficult for Democrats as this next election cycle approaches. Even most Democrats will concede that they do not have a strong likelihood of taking over that chamber of Congress. They understand that the majority of seats that are up for election in this next cycle are going favor the Republicans.
Some Democrats had hoped that they could possibly get the Senate to at least a 50-50 tie after they watched Democrat Doug Jones pull off a surprising win in the state of Alabama. That was a stunning victory in a state that had not elected a Democrat to a statewide office in decades. However, there were special circumstances in that state in terms of who the Republican candidate was and how that played a role on the race as a whole.
What it looks like is that Democrats would have to win all of the toss-up Senate races as well as perhaps a couple of races that they are not currently expected to win in order to get anywhere close to bringing the Senate back to a tie. That is not something that anyone but the most optimistic of Democrats is thinking they can do.
This means that while there is a lot of reason to think that the House of Representatives could flip over to Democratic control, do not count on the Senate doing the same. They are simply two very different playing fields. Democrats have to use different strategies and have different levels of expectations with each kind of race. These are the things that could influence the way in which the Congress is formed for the next couple of years. This is the time that things could change for the shape of the government.